Insights

The U.S. economy continued to show signs of a mismatch between demand and supply. Nearly 3 million workers have been unemployed for more than a year; yet, there are 9 million available jobs in the U.S. (Figure 1). Matching those open positions with available workers remains key to a sustain …

U.S. payrolls jumped 850,000 in June after two months of mediocre hiring (Figure 1). With these gains, the private sector has now reinstated 73% of the jobs lost during the pandemic. Restaurants and hotels led the hiring, as the leisure and hospitality industry added 343,000 new positions.

The challenge of higher prices is starting to weigh on home sales. New and existing home sales both dipped last month while the median price of existing homes sold topped $350,000 for the first time. Vacation home sales jumped 57.2% over the last year.

The Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast 1.0% for this year to 3.4% and indicated inflation will stay near its target of 2.0% in coming years. Based on a more rapid recovery and higher-than-expected inflation in recent months, Fed officials estimate the Fed will raise interest rate …

U.S. consumer prices continued to go up faster than normal. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.6% last month and has now increased 5.0% over last year (Figure 1). Used car and truck prices rose 7.3% last month and are 29.7% higher over the last year. New car prices increased 1.6%, and …

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 559,000 last month (Figure 1). This is much better than last month’s 278,000, but much lower than March’s 785,000 gain. Workers are returning to the labor force more slowly than expected. Businesses are reporting challenges in finding workers. Leisure and hospital …

U.S. home prices continued to march higher. As Figure 1 shows, they have surged 13.2%. The 20-city index has increased slightly more as cities just out of the top 10, such as Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle have experienced very rapid price appreciation. The annualized gains are in line wit …

S&P 500 earnings were expected to be strong and turned out to be phenomenal. When the final 5% of companies report, first quarter earnings are expected to have increased 51.9%. When the quarter began, earnings growth was expected to be less than 25%. Strong earnings from consumer discre …

 The U.S. economic picture is looking more muddled than expected. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% last week. Used automobile prices rose quickly in response to the semiconductor shortage limiting new car production and demographic trends boosting demand. Retail sales were expected to bui …

 The U.S. job market added only 266,000 jobs in April, missing expectations of nearly 1 million. March’s gain of more than 900,000 new jobs was revised down to 770,000. The data show the U.S. job market slowed rather than accelerated in April. The leisure and hospitality industry experience …