Market Commentary: Risk of Expanded Russian Conflict Pushes Markets Lower; US Economy Adds 678,000 Jobs
Concerns the Russian invasion of Ukraine will draw more countries into the conflict raised risk and pushed global markets lower. Statements about nuclear forces going on alert and world leaders discussing a no-fly zone concerned investors.
Market Commentary: Equity Markets Experience Another Volatile Week; Fed Signals Interest Rate Hike in Early March
Equity markets wrapped up a volatile week with a late-Friday surge that pushed the S&P 500 to a 0.8% gain. Each day last week experienced a swing of at least 2.25%. Ongoing concerns about interest rates, inflation, valuations, and geopolitical challenges are contributing to swings in the market.
Market Commentary: Housing, Equity Markets Decline with Fed Expected to Hike Interest Rates
Equity markets have given back some of last year’s gains. Higher interest rates appear to be the major cause. As the Federal Reserve prepares for its first meeting of the year, investors have raised the odds of four interest rate hikes to approximately 70% from less than 30% one month ago ( …
Market Commentary: U.S. Inflation Challenges Likely Linked to Robust Government Aid, Policy Changes
Inflation remains a challenge to the U.S. economy. CPI rose 0.5% in December and surged 7.1% during the last year. It wasn’t all food and energy prices. Core inflation, which excludes those more volatile elements, increased 0.5% as well. As the bright blue line in Figure 1 shows, inflation …
Market Commentary: Job Surveys Show Conflicting Data; Fed May Shrink Balance Sheet Sooner Than Expected
The employment report released last week may have raised more questions than it answered. The establishment survey, which surveys businesses, showed only 199,000 jobs were created, missing expectations of 400,000 (Figure 1). The household survey gave a very different picture. Unemployment f …
Market Commentary: S&P 500 Finishes Second Year of Pandemic 28.7% Higher Than It Started
2021 was a very happy year for U.S. stock investors. The S&P 500 finished the second year of a pandemic 28.7% higher than it started the year. Other countries did not do as well. The MSCI ACWI, which includes U.S. stocks, rose 18.5% in 2021. Those returns are still very impressive, but …
Market Commentary: Inflation Continues to Challenge U.S. Economy as Key Indicators Rise
The PCE price deflator confirmed inflation remains a strong challenge for the U.S. economy, rising 0.6% last month and 5.7% in the last 12 months. The annual increase was the highest since 1982. Core PCE inflation rose 0.5%, suggesting food and energy prices rose only slightly more than bro …
Market Commentary: Fed Addresses Inflation Concerns, Doubles its Pace to Reduce Bond Purchases
The Federal Reserve announced last week it would reduce its bond purchases faster than expected and signaled it intended to raise interest rates up to three times next year. The purchases were being reduced by $15 billion per month and will now accelerate to $30 billion per month, and the p …
Market Commentary: Consumer Prices Continue to Climb; Annual Inflation Rises to 6.8%
Consumer prices continued their rapid climb in the U.S. The Consumer Price Index surged 0.8% in November and is now 6.8% higher than one year ago. Big increases in food and energy prices accounted for nearly half the gains in the monthly and annual numbers. Core inflation, which excludes th …
Market Commentary: Jobs Data Sends Mixed Signals as Omicron Variant Begins to Appear in U.S.
The U.S. employment report continued to send contradictory signals as the fallout from the Omicron variant began to show up in data releases. The jobs report, based on research from a few weeks ago, indicated the U.S. only added 210,000 jobs compared to forecasted gains of 530,000. The hous …
