What Year Is It?
It continues to be a challenging year for stocks, but all is not lost. We believe there could be some decisive gains before year-end. Let’s look back at two other midterm years that were similar to 2022 in more ways than one.
Market Commentary: The Worst Month of the Year Is Here
The S&P 500 recently soared more than 17% off its June 16 lows but found trouble near its 200-day moving average. This is perfectly normal, as stocks might need to catch their breath before the next move higher. That is the good news. The bad news is the calendar is doing no one any fav …
Market Commentary: Fed’s Tone Remains Hawkish Despite Recent Gains. Will There Be More Rate Hikes?
As the Federal Reserve prepares to kick off its major monetary policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, its tone has become more hawkish. That is pressuring markets, which have rallied in recent weeks as inflation has dipped lower and economic data has remained healthy. The market’s rall …
Market Commentary: Inflation Finally Falls Flat, Stocks Respond Positively
Inflation slowed significantly in July. Lower energy prices, including a 7.7% decline in gasoline prices, helped the Consumer Price Index stay flat. Food and shelter costs helped offset the decline in energy prices. The core inflation rate fell to 0.3%, suggesting inflationary pressures are …
Market Commentary: U.S. Adds 528,000 New Jobs and Unemployment Reaches Pre-Pandemic Low
The U.S. job market didn’t get the message it was supposed to slow down. The establishment survey estimated 528,000 new jobs were created last month. Every employment sector experienced growth, although services and government hiring accounted for 87% of new jobs.
Market Commentary: As Anticipated, Fed Announces Another 0.75% Rate Hike
Last week was a big one for monetary policy and economic data. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 0.75%, with unanimous agreement that higher rates were required to bring inflation under control. In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced the Fed was becoming more dat …
Market Commentary: European Central Bank Joins Fight Against Inflation, Raises Rates 0.5%
Central banks are playing the leading role in today’s markets. Last week, the European Central Bank raised interest rates 0.5%, pulling the deposit facility rate to 0%. It is the first interest rate increase in 11 years and the first time the rate hasn’t been negative in eight years. Japan’ …
Market Commentary: U.S. Consumers Still Strong Amid Inflation; Fed Remains Hawkish
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) leapt 1.3% in June, following a 1.0% increase in May. The measure of inflation has risen 9.1% in the last year and reached its highest level since 1981 (Figure 1). Energy prices have been the top contributor in the last 12 months, responsible for 3.0% of the 9 …
Market Commentary: Robust Labor Market Growth Continues with Fed Poised for Another Rate Hike
Positive jobs data supported the market last week. The U.S. establishment survey indicated 372,000 new jobs were created in June. The rally was broad-based as every sector added jobs last month except for the governmental sector. Health care, professional and business services, and leisure …
Market Commentary: Moderating Inflation, Ebbing Political Uncertainty Among Reasons for Hope in the Face of a Tough Market
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index increased 0.6% in May, after rising only 0.2% in April. PCE inflation is an alternative inflation measure to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released earlier. The two measures both show inflation to be very high, but the CPI in …
