Market Commentary: First Vaccines Roll Out as Unemployment Claims Remain High
Initial jobless claims reached an 11-week high based on data reported last week. More than 850,000 workers filed initial unemployment claims (Figure 1). While processing delays around the Thanksgiving holiday affected the data, even after adjusting for the break it appears the economic lull …
Market Commentary: S&P 500 Gains Nearly 11% Last Month After Promising Vaccine News
November turned out to be a month full of news. A surge of COVID-19 cases, the presidential election, vaccine announcements, and slowing economic growth all moved markets. The November employment report provided additional evidence economic growth is decelerating. The economy generated 245, …
Market Commentary: Dow and S&P Set Records, but Unemployment Still Rising
The economy seems poised to decelerate in coming weeks as data showed slowing economic improvement or outright reversals of the recovery. Income data was mixed. Disposable income fell 0.8% in October as government programs expired. Gains in employment pushed employee compensation up 0.7% as …
Market Commentary: Rise in COVID-19 Cases Leads to Market Dip Before Holiday Shopping Season
Retail data were mixed last week. U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October and are now 5.7% higher than one year ago. But as Figure 1 shows, the increase was the smallest since the recovery began. Increased coronavirus cases in October likely pressured purchases lower and moved consumers onli …
Market Commentary: Markets Respond Favorably to News of Second Vaccine’s Positive Results
Special Update A second COVID-19 vaccine announced very positive results in its initial trial. A biotechnology company announced Monday their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 94.5% effective. The study also showed there were few side effects observed in the vaccine trial. The effectiveness is …
Market Commentary: COVID-19 Vaccine Shows Positive Results and Market Soars Even After Tight Election
Special Update The first COVID-19 vaccine to announce results reported very positive data early Monday morning. Two notable pharmaceutical and biotech companies announced on Monday their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective. The study also showed there were no side effects observed …
Market Commentary: Uncertainty with Election, Pandemic Cause 5.6% Drop in S&P 500.
Last week, markets moved less on the recovery of today and more on the uncertainty of tomorrow. U.S. GDP increased 33.1% (see Figure 1) after a massively negative report last quarter. Strong growth in consumer spending provided the biggest push to the overall economy. Earnings also continue …
Market Commentary: Unemployment Continues Slow Recovery as U.S. Corporations Beat Earnings Expectations
The lack of progress on a federal stimulus bill weighed on markets last week while economic and earnings data provided investors some good news. Initial unemployment claims finally dipped below 800,000. The improvement and adjustments to previous weeks’ estimates suggest the labor market is …
Market Commentary: Retail Sales Spike, but Unemployment Claims Still on Rise
Retail sales rebounded as U.S. consumers continued to put salaries and money left over from the CARES Act into the economy. Retail and food service sales surged 1.9%, more than doubling expectations of 0.8%. The gains raised overall retail sales 5.4% above year-ago levels as consumers make …
Market Commentary: Stocks Rallied in Hopes of Potential Stimulus Package
U.S. stocks rallied on expectations that a stimulus package will be passed in the coming months and additional packages will be easier to pass. The Trump administration offered proposals closer to the most recent Democratic offer. Even if no deal is reached prior to the election, polls sugg …
